NEW LIFELINES DAMAGE AND LOSS FUNCTIONS FOR TSUNAMI

This paper describes new methods for estimating the probability of damage to lifeline components due to tsunami inundation, flow and debris impact, and for combining tsunami damage with damage due to a near-shore earthquake generates the tsunami where applicable. The lifeline components considered included transportation, ports and marinas, oil and natural gas, electric power, communications, water and wastewater systems. The general framework for the tsunami fragility of lifelines is presented, together with the results of an expert survey to establish initial values for the components considered. The paper includes example values of damage and loss estimated using the new methods and compares these estimates with actual values of damage and loss for the 2012 Tohoku and other recent tsunami events. The new building damage and loss methods are part of FEMA-funded project to develop a methodology for a tsunami model to be incorporated into the HAZUS loss estimation technology. The objective of the project is to develop the methodology to produce credible results for national and regional tsunami studies and for regional and local studies, to assist in emergency response planning and evaluation of potential mitigation actions.