Long-term temperature variability and the incidence of cardiovascular diseases: A large, representative cohort study in China.

Abstract In the context of global climate change, far less is known about the impact of long-term temperature variability (TV), especially in developing countries. The current study aimed to estimate the effect of long-term TV on the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in China. A total of 23,721 individuals with a mean age of 56.15 years were enrolled at baseline from 2012-2016 and followed up during 2017 to 2019. TV was defined as the standard deviation of daily temperatures during survey years and was categorized into tertiles (lowest≤ 8.78°C, middle = 8.78 to 10.07°C, highest ≥ 10.07°C). The Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) between TV and CVD. During the median follow-up of 4.65 years, we ascertained 836 cases of incident CVD. For per 1°C increase in TV, there was a 6% increase of CVD (HR =1.06 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.11]). A significant positive trend was observed between CVD risk and increasing levels of TV compared to the lowest tertile [HR = 1.34 (95% CI: 1.13–1.59) for the medium tertile, HR = 1.72 (95% CI: 1.35–2.19) for the highest tertile, Ptrend