The Golden State's 'High' Expectations: Will California Realize the Fiscal Benefits of Cannabis Legalization?

The federal government has been taking an increasingly relaxed approach to enforcing marijuana laws. Consequently, this allows states that have legalized to realize the tax benefits of lawful marijuana. Now, California is seeking to realize those same benefits. In 2016, California voters legalized recreational marijuana with the passing of Proposition 64 (Prop. 64), also known as the Adult Use of Marijuana Act (AUMA). With the country’s highest population and largest economy, California’s impact on the marijuana industry is expected to be massive. Some are predicting that California’s marijuana market will generate $1 billion in tax revenue alone. Nonetheless, successfully generating revenue from the recreational market largely depends on several unknowable and unpredictable variables. For example, high prices when legal sales begin could polarize consumers toward the illicit market and stall industry growth. On the other hand, low prices could undercut a state’s revenue goals. In addition, even with the general success of the recreational markets in Colorado and Washington, the unique circumstance’s present in California make revenue projections unpredictable. Complicating matters more, marijuana’s illegal status under federal law also has the potential to slow down market growth and decrease revenue. Accordingly, a sound cannabis tax scheme must take these and other uncertainties into account. This Article focuses on how a tax regime that strives for short term gains will be more susceptible to the unstable conditions of the market. It explores how California is able to minimize financial risk in the recreational market while facilitating its growth. This Article argues that California should adopt several mechanisms for adjusting the marijuana tax rate, as recommended in the Rand report because the current tax scheme is too aspiring and will result in slower market growth over time. For instance, by scheduling future tax rate increases and exploiting untapped tax bases, California can cash in long-term without overburdening the market in its infancy. Indeed, a tax scheme that focuses on a short rate of return rather than long term gain will fail to optimize cannabis tax revenue. The marijuana industry will continue to develop in unpredictable ways, making flexibility to change important to the overall success of any marijuana tax regime. By minimizing risk and facilitating market growth, California can seek to become the golden standard of the cannabis industry.