Is There Enough Vaccine to Eradicate Measles? An Integrated Analysis of Measles-Containing Vaccine Supply and Demand

Responding to regional advancements in combating measles, the World Health Organization in May 2008 called for an assessment of the feasibility of measles eradication, including whether sufficient vaccine supply exists. Interviews with international health officials and vaccine-makers provided data for a detailed model of worldwide demand and supply for measles-containing vaccine (MCV). The study projected global MCV demand through 2025 with and without a global eradication goal. The study found that 5.2 billion MCV doses must be administered during 2010–2025 to maintain current measles programs, and 5.9 billion doses would likely be needed with a 2020 eradication goal; in the most intensive scenario, demand could increase to 7.5 billion doses. These volumes are within existing and planned MCV-manufacturing capacity, although there are risks. In some markets, capacity is concentrated: Supply-chain disruptions could reduce supply or increase prices. Mitigation strategies could include stockpiling, long-term contracts, and further coordination with manufacturers.