An Expert Elicitation Based Study of the Proliferation Resistance of a Suite of Nuclear Power Plants

In 2008, a multi-laboratory research team completed a study evaluating the proliferation resistance (PR) characteristics of a diverse suite of four advanced nuclear reactor designs. The systems evaluated included: • a light water reactor (a pressurized-water reactor), • a heavy water reactor, • a high temperature gas reactor (with a prismatic-block reactor core), • a sodium-cooled fast reactor. The team used an expert elicitation assessment approach based on the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) methodology. The team evaluated three general types of proliferation threats: 1) concealed diversion of material, 2) concealed misuse of the reactor to produce material, and 3) breakout. The evaluations took into account the intrinsic PR characteristics of each reactor and the extrinsic PR characteristics provided by generic safeguards the team considered appropriate for each reactor, based on the team’s experience and available conceptual design information.