Modeling waste generation and end-of-life management of wind power development in Guangdong, China until 2050

Abstract Waste generation and end-of-life (EoL) management of wind power systems (WPSs) have attracted increasing attention as the number of decommissioned wind turbines continues to increase. In this study, we have addressed this issue by applying a technology-specific, component-by-component, and stock-driven prospective dynamic material flow analysis model in the case of Guangdong, a province in South China with high wind power potential. A particular improvement in our model includes the consideration of the foundation type for offshore wind turbines and the impact of water depth. We set three scenario combinations, high, medium, and low, to reveal the scale of material stocks and flows of wind power development in Guangdong from 1989 to 2050. We found that, as the escalating development of wind power continues (particularly offshore), the total waste generation has increased from 0 tons in 1989 to 24 kilotons in 2018, and will further increase to 1,200, 740, and 490 kilotons in 2050 under the high, medium, and low, scenario combinations, respectively. This indicates a growing demand for waste disposal capacity (particularly for recycling) in the future and a necessity to consider such EoL management issue (particularly for EoL blades) and circular economy strategies (e.g., material efficiency) associated with a much-needed ambitious wind energy development plan. We also argue that relevant EoL policy for WPSs (including Extended Producer Responsibility) should be in place in advance and feasible business models should be explored with joint efforts of wind, waste, and utility industries.