Work Disability Related to Musculoskeletal Pain: A System Dynamics Approach

AbstractObjective: To apply system dynamics methodology to study the evolution of temporary work disability in the context of pain-related musculoskeletal disorders [MSD-TWD].Methods: Data were obtained from the MSD-TWD program records on 13 077 patients with acute disability [7805 in the control group [CG]; 5272 in the intervention group [IG]] who suffered 16 297 episodes of temporary work disability. Samples were randomized into two homogeneous sub-samples for validation purposes. The dynamic model developed with system dynamics methodology included 20 variables [five levels, seven rates, two auxiliary variables, six parameters], five differential equations, and eight algebraic equations. A sensitivity analysis of various scenarios was carried out.Results: Episodes were described according to their duration; short-term and long-term MSD-TWD. By tuning the model parameters, the actual survival curves of both groups in the two sub-samples were almost exactly reproduced. An explicit temporal expression of ...