Avoidable mortality by implementing more restrictive fine particles standards in Brazil: an estimation using satellite surface data.

Abstract A growing number of epidemiological studies have been affirming the linking between fine particles (PM2.5) and deaths due to diverse causes as a result of long-term exposure. This work demonstrates the benefits of improving air quality policies by evaluating the impact of PM2.5 in terms of avoidable mortality due to all causes, cardiopulmonary causes, and lung cancer, between 2014 and 2018, for 5,570 Brazilian cities. Satellite annual surface PM2.5 concentrations were compared with available monitoring measurements and used as the baseline scenario. Each phase of the Brazilian air quality legislation (CONAMA 491/2018) was used as a control scenario. The satellite PM2.5 annual surface levels were slightly lower than the monitoring concentrations, with an average mean bias of -2.7 μg/m3. No annual mean PM2.5 concentration above 20 μg/m3 was observed in any city in 2014 and 2018. In 2016, 23% of cities exceeded the annual mean concentration of 10 μg/m3. A weak positive correlation was found between city-level PM2.5 and population, vehicle fleet, number of fire outbreaks, urban area size, Growth Domestic Product per capita, Human Development Index, and life expectancy. During the five years, a total of 48,700±7,570 deaths due to all causes, 24,100±3,260 due to cardiopulmonary causes, and 1,780±435 due to lung cancer could be avoided if the maximum PM2.5 annual concentration of 10 μg/m3 was not exceeded. Less restrictive standards lead to much lower avoidable deaths. For example, considering the maximum annual concentration of 20 μg/m3, 1,335±175 deaths due to all causes could be avoided between 2015 and 2017. Our results indicate the importance of adopting more restrictive air quality standards in Brazil. If the current levels do not protect life as they should be, an effort regarding control emissions, monitoring, and modeling is essential to construct an effective air quality management for the country, aiming to comprehend the current PM2.5 concentration and to achieve lower standards.