Modeling potential hotspots of invasive Prosopis juliflora (Swartz) DC in India

Abstract Prosopis juliflora (Swartz) DC has become one of the world's 100 most dominant invasive species. It is spreading quickly in different parts of the country leading to growing public concern. Effective management of invasive plants requires information regarding their spatial distributions and identifying areas vulnerable to Invasive Alien Plant Species (IAPS). This study combines Worldclim bioclimatic data with Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and Indian biodiversity portal mediated occurrence points to model climatic suitability for P. juliflora in India under current and future climatic conditions using MaxEnt. For evaluating the importance of the environmental variables for predictive modeling, the Jack-knife test was performed. MaxEnt model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value of 0.92. We observed that a larger extent of the Indian landscape currently invaded will remain suitable for P. juliflora growth and patterns of range expansion will take place soon unless management measures are initiated. Some states of North, North-western, and Southern India are projected to have higher climatic suitability for P. juliflora in the future. The findings of this study could be used as an early warning tool for the environmental monitoring of the areas which are highly vulnerable to the invasion of the species.