Cardiovascular event risk estimated after coronary revascularization and optimal medical therapy: J-ACCESS4 prognostic study.

Background An assessment of cardiac events and survival using quantitative gated myocardial single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) (J-ACCESS) associated several risk factors with cardiac events in Japan. The clinical course after revascularization and/or optimal medical therapy (OMT) was followed in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) at moderate-to-high risk estimated by software incorporating the J-ACCESS risk model. The present study aimed to determine the relevance of changes in estimated risk to outcomes of these therapies. Methods This study included 494 patients with possible or definite CAD who underwent initial pharmacological stress 99mTc-tetrofosmin myocardial perfusion SPECT (MPS) before and eight months after therapy. Major cardiac event risk during 3 years of follow-up was calculated using an equation based on that in the J-ACCESS study. Patients with ≥ 10% cardiac event risk estimated at the first MPS (n = 31) were analyzed and followed up for at least 1 year. Results Estimated risk was reduced by ≥ 5% in 14 patients (45%) after therapy. During a follow-up period of 22.1 ± 6.7 months, one patient without such reduction had a major cardiac event. Mean %summed stress scores significantly decreased from baseline to follow-up in patients with and without risk reduction. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF [%]) at rest was significantly increased at the second, compared with the first MPS between patients with, than without risk reduction (57 ± 17 vs. 45 ± 16%, p = 0.001 and 50 ± 11 vs. 49 ± 9%, p = 0.953, respectively). Conclusions A reduction in cardiac ischemia and an increase in LVEF by revascularization and/or OMT were necessary to avoid cardiac events among patients with moderate-to-high estimated risk, and changes in event risk were quantifiable.