Simple formula to predict response to peginterferon alpha2b and ribavirin combination therapy in genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C patients with high viral loads

Aim:  We advocate a simple formula which can conveniently predict the outcome of Peg-interferon (IFN) alpha2b and ribavirin (RBV) combination therapy for genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C (CH-C) with high viral load. Methods:  A total of 338 (group A: 230, Group B: 108) genotype 1 CH-C patients treated with Peg-IFN alfa-2b and RBV were enrolled. Clinical parameters differing significantly between sustained virological responders (SVRs) and non-SVRs in group A were categorized, then a simple formula to predict SVR was constructed and re-evaluated in group B. Another formula containing hepatitis C virus amino acid mutations/substitutions also was constructed. Results:  In group A, gender and HCV RNA load <1000 KIU were significant predictors of SVR by multivariate logistic regression analysis. A simple formula was constructed (formula A): male gender (point 2) + HCV RNA load <1000 KIU (3) + platelet counts ≥15 × 104 /mm3 (1) + age <60 (1). In group A, score (0–1) predicted SVR rate 23.8% (2–4): 48.1% and (5–7): 70.2%. According to this formula, score (0–1) predicted SVR rate 7.1% (2–4): 38.6%, and (5–7): 70.3% in group B. Information on HCV amino acid mutations/substitutions seemed to add some accuracy. Conclusions:  This simple formula can be used to roughly determine, at the patients' first/second visit, the probability of response to Peg-IFN alpha2b and RBV combination therapy for genotype 1 CH-C with high viral load.