Independent and incremental prognostic value of tests performed in hierarchical order to evaluate patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Validation of models based on these tests.

BACKGROUNDThe additive prognostic value of tests done in a hierarchical order for the detection of coronary artery disease (CAD) is not always known. The principal goal of this study, therefore, was to assess the incremental prognostic value of data obtained in succession (clinical, exercise stress testing, 201Tl imaging, and coronary angiography) in patients with suspected CAD. A second goal was to develop models for determining prognosis based on results of these tests and to test the clinical validity of these models in unrelated patients.METHODS AND RESULTSData from two groups of patients who had undergone such evaluation and had been followed for a mean of 4.4 years were analyzed. There were 204 patients from Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) and 299 from the University of Virginia (UVA). There were 20 deaths and 21 nonfatal infarctions in the MGH group and 41 deaths and nine infarctions in the UVA group. Both univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to assess the individ...