Situation Analysis and Collaborative Planning for Complex Operations

Abstract : Complex operations are conducted in environments that must be represented by large-scale systems of systems that include non-physical systems (e.g. political and social networks, economics, information flows) intertwined with physical systems (e.g. infrastructures, military systems, etc.) that are adaptive and exhibit emergent (unexpected) behavior. Planning for such systems requires adaptive and robust approaches that are based in a comprehensive study of both the structure and the dynamics of these systems. This paper describes analysis and planning tools developed and evaluated in the DARPA Conflict Modeling, Planning and Outcomes Exploration (COMPOEX) Program for complex operations. The tools enable systems of systems analysts to compose conceptual, then computational models of regional and nation-level situations to explore the behavior of their interacting systems. The flexible simulation architecture allows agent-based models, systems dynamics models, Bayesian networks, linear program models, and other discrete-time models to be composed into an integrated political-military-economic-social-infrastructure and information (PMESII) simulation. The paper describes the concept of operations, the analysis and planning tools, and provides the results of normal experiments conducted with operational interagency teams on planning exercises using PMESII models across a range of lines of effort.