The impact of Covid-19 vaccination on the Italian healthcare system: a scenario analysis

Abstract Introduction The objective of this study is to estimate the effects of the national immunisation strategy for Covid-19 in Italy on the national healthcare system. Methods An epidemiological scenario analysis was developed in order to simulate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Italian national healthcare system in 2021. Hospitalisations, ICU admissions and death rates were modelled based on 2020 data. We forecast the impact of the introduction of a primary prevention strategy on the national healthcare system by considering vaccine efficacy, availability of doses and potential population coverage over time. Results In the absence of immunisation, between 57,000 and 63,000 additional deaths are forecast in 2021. Based on the assumptions underlying the two epidemiological scenarios from the 2020 data, our model predicts that cumulative hospital admissions in 2021 will range from 3.4 to 3.9 million. The deployment of vaccine immunisation has the potential to control the evolution of 2021 infections and avoid from 60 to 67 percent of deaths compared to not vaccinating. Conclusions In order to inform Italian policymakers on delivering a mass vaccination programme, this study highlights and detects some key factors that must be controlled to ensure that immunisation targets will be met in reasonable time.