Responses of surface O3 and PM2.5 trends to changes of anthropogenic emissions in summer over Beijing during 2014–2019: A study based on multiple linear regression and WRF-Chem

Abstract Owing to the implementation of air pollution control actions, anthropogenic emissions in Beijing have changed in recent years. Understanding the impact of changes in anthropogenic emissions on O3 and PM2.5 trends is helpful for developing air quality management strategies. Herein, we investigated the variations of air pollutants in summer over Beijing using long-term data sets from 2014 to 2019, and explored the responses of O3 and PM2.5 trends to changes in anthropogenic emissions based on multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis and WRF-Chem model. The results indicated a significant decrease in PM2.5, but a near constant level of O3 during 2014–2019. The decrease rate of PM2.5, which was lower than that of SO2, might be due to the effect of NO2 on atmospheric PM2.5. Both the slightly increasing correlations between PM2.5 and NO2 and the WRF-Chem model simulations implied that atmospheric PM2.5 in Beijing is trending to be more sensitive to NOx than SO2. The emissions of NOx and VOCs from industry and transportation were found to make great contribution to O3 production in Beijing. Due to the titration of NOx in VOC-limited regime, the relatively low emission ratios of NOx and VOCs from industry and transportation in Beijing provided convincing evidence for the persistently high O3 concentrations during 2014–2019. However, the noticeable increase of the O3 trends in other areas (e.g., Hebei, Tianjin) could be explained by the significant decline in the emission ratios of NOx and VOCs from anthropogenic emissions especially industry during 2014–2019. Controlling the emission of NOx can substantially reduce PM2.5 pollution, but may aggravate O3 pollution, and thus effective VOC emission control strategies need to be considered for simultaneously controlling O3 and PM2.5 pollution in Beijing and other regions of China.