Climate change and modeling of an unconfined aquifer: the Triffa plain, Morocco

The Triffa plain covering about 307 km2 is located in the semiarid region of northeastern Morocco. The cover consists of Quaternary and Mio-Pliocene formations, including alluvial material, silt, sandstone, limestone, clay, and marl, underlain by a sequence of Jurassic carbonates and clastics. Two principal aquifers occur in this region: (1) An unconfined aquifer hosted by the Quaternary formations, which opens up on the coastal plain of Saidia, giving rise to the Ain Chebbak and Ain Zebda springs; and (2) a confined aquifer hosted by the underlying Liassic (Jurassic) formations, composed of limestone and dolostone. In this paper, we present a conceptual hydrogeological model for the Triffa aquifer, which opens laterally into the Saidia aquifer, based on borehole data, bedrock geology, hydrodynamic parameters, piezometric maps, and time series groundwater level and precipitation data, obtained from several meteorological stations and pumping wells. These comprehensive data were incorporated in the Geographic Information System platform and processed using groundwater modeling software, with the development of the numerical model and its limitations discussed in detail in the present work. Subsequently, we evaluated the impact of climate change on the Triffa aquifer, assuming three different climate scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These were the B1—low, A1B—mean, and A1F1—extreme scenarios, which we modeled by simulating a decrease in the recharge in all of the study area up to year 2099 that would correspond to 9, 19, and 47%, respectively. The calibration of the model in steady and transient states produced a good agreement between the observed and simulated heads. The simulation of the impact of climate change on groundwater by a decrease in the recharge highlights the groundwater drawdown occurring in this region. This work can significantly help the authorities in the sustainable management and exploitation of local groundwater.