Man-made debris in low earth orbit - A threat to future space operations

Man-man debris in orbit represents a potentially serious threat to satellites residing in low-Earth orbit, a threat which may become sufficiently large to serve as an operational constraint. Previous work has focused on presenting the hazard as a function of altitude. In this paper a path integral formulation for calculating hazard levels is presented. This formulation enables specific spacecraft orbits and debris deposited in specific orbits to be considered in determining hazard levels. Two cases are presented: for the Space Shuttle in 160 nm (300 km) orbit and for spacecraft in sun-synchronous orbit. The previous work is found to be in good agreement with the path integral results. The sensitivity of the hazard to spacecraft orbital inclination is presented in tabular form.