Prediction of Mining Conditions in Geotechnically Complex Sites

Geotechnical complexity in mining often leads to geotechnical uncertainty which impacts both safety and productivity. However, as mining progresses, particularly for strip mining operations, a body of knowledge is acquired which reduces this uncertainty and can potentially be used by mining engineers to improve the prediction of future mining conditions. In this paper, we describe a new method to support this approach based on modelling and neural networks. A high-level causal model of the mining operations based on historical data for a number of parameters was constructed which accounted for parameter interactions, including hydrogeological conditions, weather, and prior operations. An artificial neural network was then trained on this historical data, including production data. The network can then be used to predict future production based on presently observed mining conditions as mining proceeds and compared with the model predictions. Agreement with the predictions indicates confidence that the neural network predictions are properly supported by the newly available data. The efficacy of this approach is demonstrated using semi-synthetic data based on an actual mine.