Non-traumatic emergency abdominal surgery in nonagenarian patients: a retrospective study.

PURPOSE The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the 30-day survival of nonagenarian patients who underwent non-traumatic emergency abdominal surgery. Other aims were: 90-day and 12-month survival rates, the postoperative complications rate, the impact of the emergency operation on postoperative functional status, the accuracy of the P-POSSUM in predicting 30-day postoperative mortality and changes in care services after surgery. METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study of nonagenarian patients who underwent non-traumatic emergency abdominal surgery between January 2010 and June 2017. Patients were divided in two groups according to the 30-day survival status to compare the distribution of patients' characteristics and postoperative outcomes. Overall survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. To assess the accuracy of P-POSSUM to predict 30-day mortality, a receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test were used. RESULTS 85 nonagenarian patients were enrolled in this study; of these, 27 (31.8%) died within 30 days. The Kaplan-Meier curve showed a rapid decline in survival over the first 30 postoperative days, followed by a more gradual reduction during the rest of the first year. The majority of patients (92.6%) who died within 30 days experienced a medical complication, with a preponderance of respiratory failure (48.2%) and multiple organ failure (33.3%). In the surviving patients, the postoperative functional status had worsened, and 64.2% of patients did not return to their original housing situation or were institutionalized. The accuracy of P-POSSUM in predicting 30-day mortality in nonagenarian patients was poor. CONCLUSIONS This study may help doctors convey the postoperative risks of morbidity and mortality, and also to adequately inform relatives about the possible adverse discharge destination of surviving nonagenarian patients with a consequent increase in care needs.