Risk Assessment About Nonlinear AC Probabilistic Load Flow Considering Correlation Between Stochastic Variables

We put forward the more effective indices of risk based assessment including the likelihood,severity of voltage magnitude,power flow,reactive power of generators,and studied the statistic feature of the nonlinear AC probabilistic load flow considering correlation by Monte Carlo simulation method,for the DC load flow or linear probabilistic load flow reflects the probabilistic feature of reactive power flow with great difference because of ignoring the correlation between stochastic variables.The simulation of the standard test system shows that the probabilistic dependency has a great influence on statistic feature,without considering that the risk assessment can be inaccurat.According to the aim of plan and operation,from periodic and real time operation,the system model is built to analyze the weakness point.