A Dynamic Model for Predicting Survival up to 1 Year After Ischemic Stroke

Abstract Background This study developed and validated a dynamic prediction model for survival after ischaemic stroke up to 1 year. Methods Patients with stroke (n = 425) who participated in a sub-study (2002–2004) from the South London Stroke Register (SLSR) were selected for model derivation. The model was developed using the extended Cox model with time-dependent covariates. The two temporal validation cohorts from SLSR included 1735 (1995–2002) and 2155 patients (2004–2016). The discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of the model were assessed. Results Six strong predictors were used in the model, namely, age, sex, stroke subtype, stroke severity and pre-stroke and post-stroke disabilities. The c-statistics was 0.822 at 1 year in the derivation cohort. The model had a fair performance with prognostic accuracies of 77%–83% in the validation 1 cohort and 70%–75% in the validation 2 cohort. A good calibration was observed in the derivation cohort. Conclusion The proposed model can accurately predict survival up to 1 year after ischaemic stroke.