Feasibility of cancer clinical trial enrollment goals based on cancer incidence.

20Background: More than 20% of US clinical trials fail to accrue sufficient patients and terminate prematurely, impeding innovation and negating the valuable contributions of participating patients. The aim of this study is to estimate availability of patients for each trial opening in the national oncology clinical research portfolio to provide a benchmark for better understanding feasibility of clinical trial enrollment goals. Methods: The Database for Aggregate Analysis of ClinicalTrials.gov, up-to-date as of September 3, 2017, was used to identify actively-recruiting, interventional oncology trials at US sites. Observational studies were excluded as not all are registered. Trials were categorized via Medical Subject Headings or free text condition terms and sorted by cancer diagnosis. Trial slot availability was estimated between September 1, 2017, to August 31, 2018. Availability was estimated from total anticipated enrollment, assuming a constant recruitment rate. Estimates for studies with both for...