Beyond 2020: modelling obesity and diabetes prevalence.

Abstract Aims To examine and forecast the patterns of diabetes prevalence in synergy with obesity. Methods Prophet models were employed to forecast the prevalence of diabetes and obesity in 2030 using time-series data from the WHO Global Health Observatory data repository. K-means clustering models and self-organising maps were used to identify the patterns (clusters) of diabetes prevalence in association with obesity among 183 countries. Results Three patterns of diabetes prevalence were identified, countries in cluster three were estimated to have the highest obesity (44.9%, 26.2-65.8%) and diabetes prevalence (25.3%, 18.3-32.6%) in 2030. By 2030, countries in the Eastern Mediterranean and Upper-middle-income are projected to have the highest prevalence of diabetes. Overall, Niue is likely to have the biggest impact of diabetes. Liberia is projected to experience the largest rise in the prevalence of diabetes, with over 100% growth from 2014 to 2030. Libya, Kuwait, UK, USA, Argentina, and Nauru are estimated to have the peak prevalence of obesity on their respective continents. There is no decline in the influence of obesity in 185 countries by 2030. Globally, the prevalence of diabetes is projected to increase in 2030. Conclusion These estimates of diabetes prevalence in adults confirm continuity in the “diabetes crisis”.