A nomogram to predict short-term outcome of radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy based on pre/post-treatment inflammatory biomarkers and their dynamic changes in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE We initially aimed to investigate pre/post-treatment inflammatory biomarkers (pre/post-IBs) and their dynamic changes (delta-IBs) on the short-term outcome (STO) of radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Furthermore, a nomogram was built to provide an accurate prediction of STO. METHODS The STO using the treatment response evaluation was assessed according to RECIST 1.1 at 1 month after radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy. The IBs (absolute lymphocyte counts (ALC), neutrophil/lymphocyte (NLR), platelet/lymphocyte (PLR), and lymphocyte/monocyte (LMR)) and clinical variables were collected and analyzed from 398 ESCC patients at Shandong Cancer Hospital between 2015 and 2019. The nomogram was then established for predicting STO. RESULTS Pre-ALC and pre-LMR significantly increased, pre-NLR and pre-PLR significantly decreased during radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy (all P < 0.001). Meanwhile, there was a positive correlation between delta-NLR as well as delta-PLR (r = 0.621) and delta-LMR (r = 0.613), whereas a negatively correlated between delta-LMR and delta-PLR (r = -0.573). Multivariate analysis indicated that gender [OR, 0.473; 95%CI, 0.274-0.816; P = 0.007], pre-ALC [OR, 0.554; 95%CI, 0.335-0.915; P = 0.021], pre-NLR [OR, 3.176; 95%CI, 1.733-5.823; P < 0.001], post-NLR [OR, 2.418; 95%CI, 1.271-4.600; P = 0.007] and delta-NLR [OR, 1.929; 95%CI, 1.035-3.595; P = 0.039] were statistically significant with STO. And c-index of the nomogram established by combining all independent predictors for STO was 0.770 [95%CI, 0.719-0.820]. CONCLUSION Pre-NLR, pre-ALC, post-NLR, and delta-NLR were significant with STO in ESCC patients treated with radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy. Further, pre-NLR had the best predictive value, and the developed nomogram with superior prediction ability for STO could assist in patients counseling and guide to make individual treatments.