The 1 h post glucose value best predicts future dysglycemia among normal glucose tolerance subjects

Abstract Aim To analyse the OGTT glycemic parameters - fasting, 1h and 2h plasma glucose values singly and in various combinations; with respect to their prediction of future dysglycemia in subjects with normal glucose tolerance (NGT). Methods Electronic medical records of individuals who underwent an OGTT between 1991 and 2016 at a tertiary diabetes centre were analysed. NGT subjects who had at least one more follow up OGTT ( n =1356) were selected for the study. Regarding their prediction of future dysglycemia, the glycemic parameters-Fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 1h plasma glucose (1HrPG) and 2h plasma glucose (2HrPG) were analysed separately and also in different combinations. HbA1c and the combined use of HbA1c and FPG were also compared. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to assess the capability of various glycemic parameters to discriminate between NGT and dysglycemia. The WHO criteria were used to define dysglycemia as the presence of prediabetes (Impaired fasting glucose and/or Impaired glucose tolerance) or diabetes. Results 318(23.4%) developed prediabetes (median follow up 3.5years) and 134(10%) developed diabetes (median follow up 5.6years). The 1hrPG had a significantly higher AUC (0.684, 0.716) compared to FPG (0.560 and 0.593) and 2hrPG (0.644 and 0.618) for prediabetes and diabetes respectively. Adding the FPG or the 2hrPG to the 1HrPG did not significantly improve the AUC beyond 1HrPG alone. The 1HrPG also predicted diabetes better than HbA1c as well as the combined use of HbA1c and FPG. Conclusion The 1HrPG value during OGTT is a good predictor of future dysglycemia among NGT subjects.