Model that predicted death or disabilities in premature infants was valid at seven years of age

AIM: Validated a model that used bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), brain injuries measured using ultrasound and retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) to predict late death or disability in premature infants at seven years of age. METHODS: A retrospective study was performed at the 12 de Octubre Hospital neonatal unit in Madrid. A logistic model was applied to estimate the independent prognostic contribution of each morbidity, and the effect that the combination of morbidities had on the seven-year outcomes. The analysis was performed on the total cohort from 1991 to 2008 and on two subcohorts from 1991 to 1998 and 1999 to 2008. RESULTS: A total of 1001 children were included with a mean birth weight of 922 ± 208 g. Severe ROP was strongly associated with poor neurodevelopment, with an odds ratio (OR) 3.17 and 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.56-6.50, and so was BPD (OR 1.52, 95% CI: 1.03-2.2). The combination of two neonatal morbidities increased the risk of a poor outcome (OR 4.44, 95% CI: 1.51-7.86). The model behaved differently in the two subcohorts. CONCLUSION: The prognostic model predicted a poor outcome at seven years of age when the subjects had at least two of the three morbidities.