Evaluating a surveillance system: live-bird market surveillance for highly pathogenic avian influenza, a case study

attributes. Results: A total of 299 cases occurred in 25 (72%) states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The system detected HPAI H5N1 virus in 7 (9.5%) LBMs; 2 (29%) of which were from 2 (18.2%) states with no previous case. A total of 17,852 (91.5%) of samples arrived at the laboratory within 24 hours but laboratory analysis took over 7 days. The sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) were 15.4% and 66.7% respectively. Conclusion: The system is useful, flexible, complex and not timely, but appears to be meeting its objectives. The isolation of HPAI H5N1 virus in some of these markets is an indication that the markets are possible reservoirs of the virus in Nigeria. We recommend that the Federal Government of Nigeria should dedicate more funds for surveillance for HPAI as this will aid early warning and reduce the risk of a pandemic.