Predicting blood supply and demand in the next 20 years with population ageing in China: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background The fast ageing of the general population in China will increase the demand for blood products, which may lead to a severe imbalance between blood supply and demand. This study aims to predict the changes in blood supply and demand by 2035 in China. Methods Based on data from the China Statistical Yearbook (2016), blood transfusion industry development report of China (2016 and 2017), and blood demand information of a tertiary hospital the per person blood supply and demand for different age groups were calculated, which were then, together with the predicted population structure, used to predict blood supply and demand trends between 2015 and 2035. All predictions were made assuming a relatively stable per capita blood supply and demand, enabling the influence of demographic changes on future blood supply and demand to be analysed. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of some other factors on the predicted blood supply and demand. Findings According to our predictions, blood demand was likely to exceed supply at around 2016, and the widening gap between supply and demand would reach 2·5 × 106 L by 2035, with a 15% decrease in blood supply and a 43% increase in demand. In addition, the magnitude of increase in blood demand is predicted to rise with age groups, with the highest growth rate in blood demand predicted in the 80 years and above age group (123%). After taking a 5·95% blood discard rate into consideration, the gap is predicted to increase to 2·8 × 106 L by 2035. The results of sensitivity analysis reveal the annual increase in blood supply required to meet blood demand in the next 20 years, with a lowest predicted rate of 1·64%. and a highest predicted rate of 2·25%. Interpretation Compared with other developed countries, China will come under even greater pressure of the imbalance between blood supply and demand and it is imperative to implement new strategies and measures to solve future blood supply and demand problems. Funding This work was supported by the CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS) (number 2016-I2M-3-024).