Inferred systolic blood pressure levels to switch from lifestyle modifications to antihypertensive medications: a success-rate oriented simulation

ABSTRACTObjective: This simulation study attempted to infer the systolic blood pressure (SBP) levels at which subjects with hypertension, health nurses, and primary physicians should switch their preference of their treatment policies from lifestyle modifications to antihypertensive medications in virtual Japanese sample populations. Methods: We assumed that SBP levels were normally distributed and that the incidence rate of cardiovascular disease (IRCVD, events/year) increased exponentially according to SBP. The total IRCVD was calculated by the definite integral for the product of the distribution of SBP multiplied by IRCVD at each SBP level. The success rates were calculated according to SBP and metabolic risk profiles in the two approaches, respectively. We deduced the hypothetical SBP levels by solving differential equations of ∆(IRCVD)/ ∆(SBP) = 0 using numerical analysis. Results: In the realistic situations where the subjects were not affirmative to antihypertensive medications, the inferred SBP l...