Modelling the burden of stroke in Finland until 2030

BackgroundIt is well known that increasing age is the strongest risk factor of stroke. Therefore, it has been a common belief in many countries including Finland that the numbers of stroke patients will increase considerably during the next two decades because the population is rapidly ageing.MethodsThe FINMONICA and FINSTROKE registers operated in Finland in the Kuopio area and city of Turku from 1983 to 1997. The results showed that the incidence, mortality and case fatality of stroke declined significantly during that period. Importantly, it was established that the trends in incidence and mortality were also declining among the elderly (>74 years). We used these results to create a model for the entire country. The model was based on the trends present in these registers from Turku and Kuopio area and age-specific population projections up to the year 2030 that were obtained from Statistics Finland.ResultsIn the year 2000, the number of new first stroke cases was estimated to be 11500. If the declinin...