Prediction risk chart for scleroderma digital ulcers: A composite predictive model based on capillaroscopic, demographic and clinico-serological parameters

Digital ulcers (DU) affect 50% of systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients, representing a challenging clinical problem. Despite a high negative predictive value, capillaroscopic scores proposed to select patients at risk for DU show an inadequate positive predictive value, especially in patients without previous DU. AIM OF THIS STUDY: To increase the predictive value for DU development of capillaroscopy, through a predictive risk chart taking into account capillaroscopic, demographic, and clinico-serological parameters. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Two hundred and nineteen unselected SSc patients from 8 Italian Rheumatology Centers were consecutively enrolled during a 6-month period. Demographic, clinical, serological and instrumental data and capillaroscopy skin ulcers risk index (CSURI) were collected.