[A nested case-control study on relationship of traditional and combined lipid metabolism indexes with incidence of diabetes].

Objective: To explore the relationship between lipid indicators and the incidence of diabetes, and to compare the diabetes prediction and identification power of traditional lipid combined lipid indicators, in order to explore the best alternative indicators for identifying and predicting diabetes. Methods: Based on the Jinchang cohort, a nested case-control study was conducted in 1 025 new cases of diabetes after excluding patients with malignant tumor and related endocrine, circulatory system disease, then an age (±2 years), gender matched 1∶1 control group of 1 025 cases was set to analyze the relationship between the incidence of diabetes and lipid parameters. Results: Among the traditional lipid parameters, the fourth quartile of TG, TC, and LDL-C indicated higher risks of developing diabetes, which was 14.00 times (95%CI: 9.73-20.15), 2.15 times (95%CI: 1.65-2.79) and 1.66 times (95%CI: 1.29-2.14) than that of the first quartile, respectively. The risk of developing diabetes indicated by the fourth quartile of HDL-C was 0.21 times than that indicated by the first quartile (95%CI: 0.15-0.28). In the combined lipid parameters, the fourth quartile of TG/HDL-C, TC/HDL-C, LDL-C/HDL-C and non-HDL-C indicated higher risks of developing diabetes, which was 14.86 times (95%CI: 10.35-21.34), 8.12 times (95%CI: 5.94-11.01), 5.85 times (95%CI:4.34-7.88) and 5.20 times (95%CI: 3.85-7.03) than that indicated by the first quartile, respectively. The areas under the ROC curve of TG, TC, HDL-C, LDL-C, TG/HDL-C, TC/HDL-C, LDL-C/HDL-C and non-HDL-C were 0.76 (95%CI: 0.74-0.78), 0.59 (95%CI: 0.57-0.61), 0.67 (95%CI: 0.65-0.69), 0.57 (95%CI: 0.55-0.59), 0.77 (95%CI: 0.75-0.78), 0.73 (95%CI: 0.71-0.75), 0.69 (95%CI: 0.67-0.71) and 0.66 (95%CI: 0.64-0.68), respectively. The optimal diabetes predicting point cuts of TG, TC, HDL-C, LDL-C, TG/HDL-C, TC/HDL-C, LDL-C/HDL-C and non-HDL-C were 1.40, 4.70, 1.28, 3.25, 1.17, 3.43, 2.46, and 3.58 mmol/L, respectively. Conclusions: Lipid metabolic disorder is a risk factor for diabetes. TG and TG/HDL-C are the good lipid metabolism indicators for the prediction of diabetic.