A radiobiological Markov simulation tool for aiding decision making in proton therapy referral

Abstract Purpose Proton therapy can be a highly effective strategy for the treatment of tumours. However, compared with X-ray therapy it is more expensive and has limited availability. In addition, it is not always clear whether it will benefit an individual patient more than a course of traditional X-ray therapy. Basing a treatment decision on outcomes of clinical trials can be difficult due to a shortage of data. Predictive modelling studies are becoming an attractive alternative to supplement clinical decisions. The aim of the current work is to present a Markov framework that compares clinical outcomes for proton and X-ray therapy. Methods A Markov model has been developed which estimates the radiobiological effect of a given treatment plan. This radiobiological effect is estimated using the tumour control probability (TCP), normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) and second primary cancer induction probability (SPCIP). These metrics are used as transition probabilities in the Markov chain. The clinical outcome is quantified by the quality adjusted life expectancy. To demonstrate functionality, the model was applied to a 6-year-old patient presenting with skull base chordoma. Results The model was successfully developed to compare clinical outcomes for proton and X-ray treatment plans. For the example patient considered, it was predicted that proton therapy would offer a significant advantage compared with volumetric modulated arc therapy in terms of survival and mitigating injuries. Conclusions The functionality of the model was demonstrated using the example patient. The proposed Markov method may be a useful tool for deciding on a treatment strategy for individual patients.