Establishment and verification of a nomogram for predicting severe acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to establish a nomogram for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) and verify its predictive value. PATIENTS AND METHODS A total of 571 AP patients received by Ordos Central Hospital from January 2015 to December 2018 were included in this study. According to the 2012 Revised Atlanta classification, the included subjects were classified into severe AP (SAP) group and non-severe AP (NSAP) group [including patient with mild AP (MAP) and moderately SAP (MSAP)]. The baseline characteristics, imageological data and pathological data within 24 h after the disease onset between the two groups were analyzed using One-way analysis of variance (one-way ANOVA). R language was used for establishing a predictive nomogram, whose performance was verified by clinical data of 150 AP cases collected from December 2018 to December 2019. RESULTS One-way ANOVA shows that SAP and NSAP patients show significant differences in sex, calcium ions, creatinine, neutrophils ratio, lymphocytes ratio and eosinophils ratio (p<0.05). A predictive nomogram was accordingly established using the six indicators. Validation on this predictive nomogram showed high internal validation concordance index (C-index) of 0.69 (95% CI, 0.64-0.74), and high external validation C-index of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.67-0.76). CONCLUSIONS This nomogram can be used as a clinical tool to predict the severity of SAP.