Proposal for a clinical and an echocardiographic score for prediction of left atrial thrombosis in atrial fibrillation patients undergoing early electrical cardioversion

Aims Left atrial thrombosis (LAT) is usually detected by transesophageal echocardiography (TEE). The aim of the present study was to identify clinical and echocardiographic factors associated with left atrial thrombosis in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients undergoing early electrical cardioversion (ECV) in order to create scores that can predict LAT, in a non-invasive way. Methods A consecutive cohort of patients with persistent AF scheduled for ECV was evaluated by transthoracic echocardiography and TEE. By a logistic regression model, variables significantly associated with LAT were assessed and introduced in predictive models to develop both a clinical and an echocardiographic prediction score for the presence of LAT. Results In total, 125 patients [median 71 (range 49-88) years, 60.0% males] were enrolled. Transesophageal echocardiography showed LAT in 35 patients (28%). The clinical variables significantly associated with LAT were previous stroke (OR = 4.17), higher CHA2 DS2 -VASc score (OR = 1.93), lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (OR = 0.80), and higher brain natriuretic peptide levels (OR = 1.44). Among echocardiographic parameters, E/e' ratio was directly associated with LAT (OR = 2.25), while an inverse correlation was detected with left ventricular ejection fraction (OR = 0.43) and total global left atrial strain (OR = 0.59). Two prediction scores (clinical and echocardiographic) were developed. The positive predictive values of the clinical and the echocardiographic score were 80% and 100%, respectively, while the negative predictive values were 98% and 94%, respectively. Combined use of the scores reached a positive and negative predictive value of 100%. Conclusions When providing concordant information the two scores are able to correctly identify patients with or without LAT. An external validation is necessary to demonstrate their usefulness in the clinical practice.