A proposal of simple calculation (ERI calculator) to predict the early response to TNF-α blockers therapy in rheumatoid arthritis

Increasing evidence has been accumulated for treating rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with TNF-α blocking agents. The formulation and definition of an early indicator of patient’s reactivity during therapy may be extremely simplified by a mathematical model of clinical response. We analyzed the most significant clinical and laboratory parameters of response of 35 homogeneous patients (30 women, 5 men mean age ± SD: 52.31 ± 12.30 years) treated with adalimumab 40 mg every 2 weeks associated with methotrexate (MTX) 10–15 mg/week and with a stable dosage of steroids for 30 weeks. The over time trend of the studied parameters showed a linear response, which has allowed the realization of a simple mathematical model. The formula derived from this mathematical model was then applied and therefore validated in a group of 121 patients previously treated with several anti-TNF-alpha agents for at least 6 months. We drafted a mathematical model (early response indicator, ERI) that, by using a simple calculation, allows us to identify a high percentage of responder patients after only 2 weeks of treatment. ERI identified a high percentage (88%) of patients responding after only 2 weeks, as was confirmed at weeks 30; the use of ERI calculation after 6 weeks increases the proportion of responding patients to 92% with a percentage of false negatives of only 12%. ERI could be a useful tool to early differentiate the responder from the non-responder patients.