Application of Weighted Moving Average Model on the Pre-Warning of Coal and Gas Outburst

By defining and studying the time series of gas emission concentration (which was called G series in the paper), weighted moving average (WMA) model for pre-warning of coal and gas outburst was developed. The long & short-term trend curved lines of G series were drawn with the data of “3.30” coal and gas outburst of a coal mine. The results indicate, at normal production periods, coal body containing gas kept relatively steady, the gas content curved line, and long & short-term trend curved lines all changed mildly. Before occurring of outburst, some abnormal variations were found, including roadway body broken, gas energy released obvious increase or fluctuation of gas emission concentration, the gas content curved line passing through moving average curved line, long-term and short-term trend curved lines breaking through each other. The result of this study can be selected as the precursors to pre-warning coal and gas outburst.