Risk for Progression to Overt Hypothyroidism in an Elderly Japanese Population with Subclinical Hypothyroidism

Background: Few population-based studies report the changes with time in thyroid function tests in patients with subclinical hypothyroidism. We compared the risk for developing overt hypothyroidism in patients with subclinical hypothyroidism and euthyroid controls from the same population of elderly Japanese. We also sought associations of selected parameters with the development of overt hypothyroidism in the subclinical hypothyroid and euthyroid groups. Methods: We measured thyrotropin (TSH) and free thyroxine (T4) levels at baseline examinations performed from 2000 to 2003 in the cohort of Japanese atomic-bomb survivors and identified 71 patients with spontaneous subclinical hypothyroidism (normal free T4 and TSH >4.5 mIU/L without a history of thyroid treatment, mean age 70 year) and 562 euthyroid controls. We re-examined TSH and free T4 levels an average of 4.2 years later (range, 1.9–6.9). Results: The risk for progression to overt hypothyroidism was significantly increased in subclinical hypothyroi...