6-year change in resting heart rate is associated with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus

Abstract Background and aims Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is associated with risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, the association of change in RHR (ΔRHR) and incident T2DM is not fully elucidated. We aimed to assess the dose–response association between 6-year ΔRHR and T2DM. Methods and results A total of 12155 non-T2DM participants ≥18 years old were enrolled during 2007–2008 and followed up during 2013–2014. ΔRHR was calculated by subtracting the baseline RHR from the RHR value at 6-year follow-up. Age-, sex-, and RHR-specific relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the effect of ΔRHR on incident T2DM were calculated by using modified Poisson regression models. As compared with ΔRHR of 0 beats/min, the adjusted risk of T2DM was significantly increased with RHR increment and reduced with RHR reduction. ΔRHR was positively associated with future risk of T2DM [RR per unit increase: 1.03 (1.03–1.04)]. As compared with stable change in RHR group (−5 Conclusions Dynamic RHR change was significantly associated with incident T2DM. Our study suggests that RHR may be a non-invasive clinical indicator for interventions aiming to reduce incident T2DM in the general population.