“PancPro” as a tool for selecting families eligible for pancreatic cancer screening: An Italian study of incident cases

Abstract Background PancPRO is a computer program that estimates the risk of pancreatic cancer for asymptomatic individuals based on a genetic model of susceptibility and the familial incidence of cancer. Aim To evaluate the distribution of the familial risk in a series of incident cases of pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Materials and methods The lifetime risk of pancreatic cancer was calculated by PancPro for a hypothetical 40-year-old son of 570 consecutive probands with pancreatic cancer. Results The 570 risk values were included between 1% and 13%. The distribution was bimodal, with the antimode located at risk = 7.5%. Considering a 10-fold risk over the general population as a threshold for including a subject in a surveillance program, 19 families (3.3%) would be selected, totalling 92 first-degree relatives with age >40 years. Conclusions PancPro is a valid instrument to rank families based on risk of pancreatic cancer.