Trends in the Incidence and Mortality of Stroke in Matão, Brazil: The Matão Preventing Stroke (MAPS) Study

BACKGROUND: Stroke population-based studies in the same setting comparing time trends of rates are a gold standard method to determine the primary prevention status of stroke. Twelve years ago, we measured the stroke incidence and mortality in Matao city, Southeast of Brazil. OBJECTIVE: This second Matao stroke registry study aimed to determine the time trends in the incidence, mortality, case fatality, and functional status of patients with stroke. METHODS: This was a prospective, population-based study known as the Matao Preventing Stroke (MAPS). We determined all incident stroke events that occurred between August 1, 2015, and July 31, 2016. Between the periods of November 1, 2003, to October 31, 2004, and August 1, 2015, to July 31, 2016, the rates were age adjusted to the Brazilian and world population. Functional status was measured by Barthel scale 1 year after the index event. RESULTS: We registered 81 cases of incident stroke. Demographic and cardiovascular risk factors were similar in both periods. The mean age increased by 9%, from 65.2 (95% CI 62.6-67.8) to 71.0 (95% CI 68.1-73.8) years. Between 2003-2004 and 2015-2016, the age-adjusted incidence decreased by 39% (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.61; 95% CI 0.46-0.79) and mortality by 50% (IRR 0.50; 95% CI 0.31-0.94). The 1-year case fatality was 26%; approximately 56% of the patients were functionally independent, while 7% had a recurrent stroke. Compared with the results of our first registry study, these outcomes did not differ significantly. CONCLUSION: Our findings agree with those of previous studies, showing a decline in the incidence and mortality of stroke in Brazil. Improvements in local public health care might explain these declines.