Screening for Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma in BRCA2 Mutation Carriers: Results of a Disease Simulation Model

article Background: BRCA2 mutation carriers are at increased risk for multiple cancers including pancreatic adenocarci- noma (PAC). Our goal was to compare the effectiveness of different PAC screening strategies in BRCA2 mutation carriers, from the standpoint of life expectancy. Methods: A previously published Markov model of PAC was updated and extended to incorporate key aspects of BRCA2 mutation carrier status,including competing risksof breast- and ovarian-cancer specific mortality.BRCA2 mutation carriers were modeled and analyzed as the primary cohort for the analysis. Additional higher risk BRCA2 cohorts that were stratified according to the number of first-degree relatives (FDRs) with PAC were also analyzed. For each cohort, one-time screening and annual screening were evaluated, with screening starting at age 50 in both strategies. The primary outcome was net gain in life expectancy (LE) compared to no screening. Sensitivity analysis was performed on key model parameters, including surgical mortality and MRI test performance.