0500 Invited keynote: who would have thought it? the unforeseen problems of disruptive technologies

Increasing exploitation of Britain’s coal resources and the manufacture of steel in the 18 th century led to the invention of the steam engine, liberating factories from dependence on water power and enabling transport by railway and steam ships. The application of these technologies and the ideas of Adam Smith on the use of capital led to the Industrial Revolution and Britain’s dominance in world trade through the 18 th and 19 th centuries. However, in large part this was based on gross exploitation of human and other resources throughout Britain and its Empire. The most obvious health consequences of coal affected miners; accidental deaths and lung disease. The latter became a matter of intense medical dispute right through to the late 20 th century. Less obvious at first were the health consequences of air pollution, which made an impact on medical thinking only in the mid-20 th century. Even less obvious were more subtle consequences of coal exploitation. The production of coke for making steel was found to cause lung cancer in coke oven workers. Secondary use of the volatile derivatives from coke and coal gas manufacture led to the organic chemical, rubber and plastics industries, from which mankind has derived enormous benefits but which in turn have led to health hazards among workers, from bladder cancers to leukaemias and neurological diseases. Most serious of all have been the ecological consequences of the use of coal and its successor, oil, to which similar effects on workers can be ascribed. Of these, the most important is climate change which threatens the end of civilisation. This was not foreseen until the very late 20 th century. Now we are facing similar threats from other disruptive and primarily beneficial technologies – the world-wide web, robotics, artificial intelligence, genetic engineering and nanotechnology. Can we foresee these problems and act to reduce the risks?