[Spatial-temporal analysis on the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome among permanent residence and migrants in Shanghai, 2005-2015].

Objective To describe the spatial and temporal characteristics of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS) in permanent residents and migrants in Shanghai during 2005 to 2015 and provide suggestions for the HIV/AIDS prevention. Methods The data of HIV/AIDS was collected from the National HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Information Management System based on report date. The population data was collected from the statistical yearbook of Shanghai. Spatial analysis was conducted using the hotspots model in ArcGIS. SaTScan software was employed to determine the distribution of HIV clusters in space, time or both. Results During 2005 to 2015, a total of 13 498 cases of HIV/AIDS were reported in Shanghai. The prevalence of HIV increased from 0.025/105 (450 cases) to 0.093/105 (2 236 cases). The prevalence of AIDS increased from 0.002/105 (32 cases) to 0.028/105 (683 cases). Hotspot analysis showed that the hot spot of incidence of migrants had moved from Hongkou (2005) (Z=2.96, P=0.003) to Changning (2006-2015) (all Z>1.96, P 2.58, P 1.96, P<0.05). The spatial high clusters of HIV and AIDS were same, including Huangpu, Xuhui, Changning, Jingan, Putuo, Hongkou and Yangpu; The temporal high clusters of HIV cases among permanent residents were 2011 to 2015, and the spatial clusters were Huangpu, Xuhui, Changning, Jingan. The temporal high clusters of HIV cases among migrants were 2014 to 2015, and the spatial clusters was Xuhui, Changning, Jingan. Conclusion The total HIV/AIDS incidence in Shanghai was clustered in downtown area. The cluster of the incidence of the permanent residents had moving towards that of migrants, indicating the cluster area deserves a close surveillance. Key words: HIV; Space-time clustering; Migrants