Comparison of risk scores to predict subclinical atherosclerosis

: Subclinical atherosclerosis is a powerful predictor of cardiovascular events, although it is unknown which of the risk scores is more useful to predict its presence in a Latin American population. The objective was to compare the performance of the risk scores: Framingham, Regicor and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Estimator to predict the presence of subclinical atherosclerosis in asymptomatic persons without known cardiovascular disease; as well as determining its prevalence and distribution in the different vascular beds. From 2014 to 2017, patients from 35 to 75 years, asymptomatic and without known cardiovascular disease who underwent a carotid and femoral Doppler echo and calcium score were evaluated. Subclinical atherosclerosis was defined as the presence of plaques in the carotid and/or femoral arteries or the presence of calcium in the coronary arteries (Agatston score > 0). A total of 212 patients were included. The mean age was 53 ± 7 years, of which 60% (128) were male. The prevalence of subclinical atherosclerosis was 62% (131 cases). Of these 131 subjects with a plaque in any of the territories, the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Estimator was the one that identified the highest number of cases with high cardiovascular risk (39%), Framingham detected 20%, and Regicor 0% (p < 0.01). The net reclassification was 41%, 50% and 60% respectively (< 0.01). The prevalence of subclinical atherosclerosis in asymptomatic persons without a history of cardiovascular disease was 62%. The Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Estimator was the most effective predictor of subclinical atherosclerosis in this population.