Abstract 19555: Lifetime Risk of Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction and Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction: An Individual-Level Pooled Analysis

Introduction: Lifetime risk of HF has been estimated to range from 20% to 46% in diverse sex and race groups. However, lifetime risk estimates for the two HF phenotypes, HFpEF and HFrEF, have not been clearly defined. Hypothesis: Lifetime risk of HFpEF and HFrEF will vary across different sex- and race-based groups. Methods: Participant-level data from 2 large prospective cohort studies, CHS, and MESA, were pooled excluding individuals with prevalent HF. Remaining lifetime risk estimates for HFpEF (EF≥ 45%) and HFrEF (EF < 45%) were determined at different index ages using a modified Kaplan-Meier method with HF-free mortality and other HF subtype as competing risks. Results: We included 12,417 participants older than 45 years age (22.2% blacks, 44.8% men) with 561 HFrEF & 726 HFpEF incident events over a median follow up of 12.1 years. At index age of 45y, the lifetime risk of overall HF through age 90 was higher in men than women. This was largely related to the higher risk of HFrEF in men than women. Th...