Differences in behavior and distribution of permafrost‐related lakes in Central Yakutia and their response to climatic drivers

The Central Yakutian permafrost landscape is rapidly being modified by land use and global warming, but small-scale thermokarst process variability and hydrological conditions are poorly understood. We analyze lake-area changes and thaw subsidence of young thermokarst lakes on ice-complex deposits (yedoma lakes) in comparison to residual lakes in alas basins during the last 70 years for a local study site and we record regional lake size and distribution on different ice-rich permafrost terraces using satellite and historical airborne imagery. Statistical analysis of climatic and ground-temperature data identified driving factors of yedoma- and alas-lake changes. Overall, lake area is larger today than in 1944 but alas-lake levels have oscillated greatly over 70 years, with a mean alas-lake-radius change rate of 1.663.0 m/yr. Anthropogenic disturbance and forest degradation initiated, and climate forced rapid, continuous yedoma-lake growth. The mean yedoma lake-radius change rate equals 1.261.0 m/yr over the whole observation period. Mean thaw subsidence below yedoma lakes is 6.261.4 cm/yr. Multiple regression analysis suggests that winter precipitation, winter temperature, and active-layer properties are primary controllers of area changes in both lake types; summer weather and permafrost conditions additionally influence yedoma-lake growth rates. The main controlling factors of alas-lake changes are unclear due to larger catchment areas and subsurface hydrological conditions. Increasing thermokarst activity is currently linked to older terraces with higher ground-ice contents, but thermokarst activity will likely stay high and wet conditions will persist within the near future in Central Yakutian alas basins.