One-year change in resting heart rate and subsequent risk of hypertension in healthy Chinese adults.

BACKGROUND Changes in baseline resting heart rate (RHR) appear to predict new-onset hypertension (NOH). However, RHR is a dynamic anthropometric parameter; thus, the association between changes in RHR and NOH requires further investigation. METHODS We studied 10 403 participants who were initially normotensive and who had at least one routine health examination at baseline and 1 year later during 2011-2016. We compared the RHR between the baseline and 1-year follow-up. We defined hypertension as SBP ≥140 mmHg or DBP ≥90 mmHg. Participants were divided into three groups: RHR decreased, RHR unchanged [from 0 to 10 beats per minute (bpm)], and RHR increased ≥10 bpm. Cox regression analysis was performed to calculate relative risk with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between NOH and RHR change. RESULTS During a mean follow-up period of 2.42 years, 1173 (11.28%) participants developed hypertension. After adjusting for age, sex, SBP, DBP, RHR and other confounders obtained at baseline, and compared with participants with unchanged RHR, participants with decreased RHR had a 17% decreased risk of NOH (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.83, 95% CI 0.73-0.95), whereas subjects with RHR that increased ≥10 bpm had a 23% increased risk of NOH (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.23, 95% CI 1.04-1.46). CONCLUSION A 1-year increase in RHR for initially normotensive subjects is an independent risk factor for subsequent hypertension.