End-stage renal disease treated in Provence-Alpes Côte d’Azur: 12-years follow-up and forecast to the year 2030

This study describes the time trend of renal replacement therapy for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the Provence-Alpes Cote d’Azur region (PACA) between 2004 and 2015, and forecasts up to 2030. A longitudinal study was conducted on all ESRD patients treated in PACA and recorded in the French Renal Epidemiology and Information Network (REIN) during this period. Time trends and forecasts to 2030 were analyzed using Poisson regression models. Since 2004, the number of new patients has steadily increased by 3.4% per year (95% CI, 2.8–3.9, p < 0.001) and the number of patients receiving RRT has increased by 3.7% per year (RR 1.037, 95% CI: 1.034–1.039, p < 0.001). If these trends continue, the PACA region will be face with 7371 patients on dialysis and 3891 with a functional renal transplant who will need to be managed in 2030. The two most significant growth rates were the percentage of obese people (RR 1.140, 95% CI: 1.131–1.149, p < 0.001) and those with diabetes (RR 1.070, 95% CI; 1.064–1.075, p < 0.001). This study highlights the increase in the number of ESRD patients over 12 years, with no prospect of stabilization. These findings allow us to anticipate the quality and quantity of care offered and to propose more preventive measures to combat obesity and diabetes.