Cost-effectiveness of new oral anticoagulants and warfarin in atrial fibrillation from adverse events perspective

Abstract Objective new oral anticoagulants (apixaban, dabigatran and rivaroxaban) are the newest advance for stroke's risk reduction in atrial fibrillation. These are as effective as warfarin in preventing stroke/systemic embolism, but exists heterogenic outcomes as gastrointestinal hemorrhage, mortality reduction, minor and major haemorrhage (adverse events). Despite of this, there is a lack of cost-effectiveness models focused on adverse events. Methods a cost-effectiveness analysis with a third payer perspective, interventions included were apixaban, dabigatran, warfarin and rivaroxaban. Discount rate of 3%, and 10 years of temporal horizon. The Markov model is an international, validated, and modified to assess better adverse events. Major assumptions, patients with mild and moderate stroke returns to oral anticoagulation, patients with moderate and severe hemorrhage do not returns to oral anticoagulation. Probabilities and QALYs, taken from a cost-effectiveness analysis published. Costs, information from a cohort of stroke patients. Software, TreeAge pro™ and Excel™. Results overall results, 1.48 QALYs, $17 916 USD for apixaban, 1.49 QALYs, $18 122 USD for dabigatran, 1.32 QALYs, $21 966 USD for warfarin and 1.24 QALYs, $24 547 USD for rivaroxaban. The ICER for apixaban compared to dabigatran was $12 988 USD. Negative ICER for warfarin and rivaroxaban, shows that are dominated alternatives (less benefits and more costs). Apixaban is cost-effective at 70% and dabigatran at 30% of iterations in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Conclusions apixaban and dabigatran are cost-effective alternatives, apixaban is the most cost-effective alternative from adverse events perspective. Warfarin shows better results than rivaroxaban to prevent stroke in atrial fibrillation from adverse events perspective.